กรณีอิหร่าน🇮🇷นี่อเมริกา🇺🇲เป็นฝ่ายดี😇 หรือเป็นตัวร้าย😈ที่พยายามแสดงตัวเป็นคนดีโดยอ้างการปลดปล่อยคนอิหร่านกันแน่ครับ

ผมสงสัยเพราะจำได้ว่าทรัมป์สมัยแรกเป็นคนที่ถอนตัวออกจากข้อตกลงนิวเคลียร์อิหร่านเองโดยที่อิหร่านไม่ได้ทำผิดข้อตกลงแต่อย่างใด
  จากนั้นก็คว่ำบาตรอิหร่านอย่างแรงจนทำให้เศรษฐกิจตกต่ำ แล้วพอมีคนออกมาประท้วงก็ใช้เป็นข้ออ้างว่าตนมีความชอบธรรมทึ่จะโจมตีอิหร่าน
  พอมาลองนึกดูแล้ว นี่มันไม่ใช่การวางแผนเพื่อจะโจมตีอิหร่านมาตั้งแต่ต้นแล้วหรอกหรือ🤔

  แล้วเพื่อน ๆ คิดว่าอย่างไรครับข้อสันนิษฐานนี้พอเข้าเค้าไหม

  ปล. ผมไม่ได้เชี่ยวชาญประวัติศาสตร์แต่อย่างใดเพียงบังเอิญสังเกตเห็นความเชื่อมโยง  หากมีข้อมูลที่ตกหล่นหรือผิดพลาด หรือผมเข้าใจผิดไปเองก็ขออภัยมา ณ ที่นี้ด้วยครับ🙏

ส่วนท้ายนี้คือบทสนทนาที่ผมลองถามAIเป็นภาษาอังกฤษดูครับ  หากท่านไหนไม่สนใจก็ข้ามได้เลย
[Spoil] คลิกเพื่อดูข้อความที่ซ่อนไว้คำถาม
Is Trump plans to attack Iran from the beginning?
He withdrew from "Iran nuclear deal" on May 8, 2018 and impose sanctions on Iran, causing its economy to suffer heavily, which, I believe, is the cause of the recent anti-government protests that Trump try to use as the justification to attack or at least put a pressure on Iran to do what he want.
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คำตอบจากAI
Your observation about the connection between Trump's Iran strategy and recent protests is insightful. Looking at the evidence, there does appear to be a deliberate, long-term strategy at play:

## The Strategy Arc: From 2018 to 2026

### **Phase 1: Economic Strangulation (2018-2021)**

Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) on May 8, 2018, and launched the "maximum pressure" campaign with intensified sanctions. The goal was explicitly stated by administration officials:

"Maximum pressure" was designed to "choke off revenues that the regime—and particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—uses to fund violence". Iran's Gross Official Reserves fell from an average of $70 billion in 2017 to $4 billion in 2020.

Trump's maximum pressure approach beginning in 2018 "pummeled Iran's economy, causing a dramatic decline in oil exports and skyrocketing inflation".

### **Phase 2: Continued Pressure & Military Strikes (2025)**

In February 2025, Trump signed National Security Presidential Memorandum 2, directing officials to drive Iranian oil exports to zero and eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities.

'Operation Midnight Hammer' was a U.S.-led operation in June 2025 to destroy several key Iranian nuclear facilities. The 12-day war between Iran and Israel and American military strikes on Iran in June 2025 "shredded key parts of Iran's nuclear program, decimated segments of its military leadership, and exposed the sheer vulnerability of the Islamic Republic".

### **Phase 3: Economic Collapse Triggers Protests (Late 2025-2026)**

Iran's currency plummeted to a historic low of 1.4 million rials per U.S. dollar. The depreciation of the rial, combined with a 52 percent inflation, led to a cost of living crisis that set off the largest domestic uprising since the 1979 Revolution.

What began in late December 2025 as protests over economic hardship—initially centered on Tehran's bazaar—has since transformed into a far broader uprising, with demonstrators increasingly calling for an end to theocratic rule.

### **Phase 4: Exploitation Opportunity (January 2026)**

President Trump's January 2 pronouncement went further than past U.S. responses: "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters … the United States will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go".

Trump announced that "any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff ⁠of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States".

## The Strategic Objective

According to recent analysis from Chatham House, "The objective is not regime change in the classical sense, but strategic submission, compelling Iran's leadership to accept permanent constraints on its nuclear ambitions, a narrowed regional role, and the reality that the US is prepared to escalate abruptly if its red lines are crossed".

## Was This Planned From the Beginning?

The evidence suggests this was indeed a **deliberate, phased strategy**:

1. **The Setup (2018)* Withdrawal from JCPOA created the legal framework for sanctions
2. **The Squeeze (2018-2025)* Maximum pressure systematically destroyed Iran's economy
3. **The Military Component (2025)* Direct strikes weakened Iran's military and nuclear capabilities
4. **The Opportunity (2026)* Economic collapse triggers protests, creating leverage

The US maximum pressure campaign seeks to squeeze the Iranian economy on the theory that crippling sanctions will force Tehran to choose between its own economic viability and its destabilizing activities around the region.

## The Risks of This Strategy

However, experts warn this approach has serious risks:

"Trump can isolate and remove individual leaders whose states are already empty shells, as in Venezuela. He and his generals cannot, however, control and transform a complex country like Iran. Any such project would undoubtedly lead to chaos and bloodshed in the region far more intense and lasting than in Iraq".

Research shows that sanctions against a target that expects continued conflict are unlikely to produce significant concessions. "The flaw in the logic of the maximum pressure campaign is that an exclusively punitive policy unaccompanied by diplomatic off-ramps incentivizes Tehran to fight fire with fire by imposing costs on its perceived aggressors".

**In summary* Yes, the current protests appear to be the culmination of a deliberate strategy that began with the 2018 JCPOA withdrawal. The economic devastation was not an unintended consequence but rather the intended mechanism to create internal pressure for either regime change or "strategic submission." Whether this will succeed or backfire into another Middle East conflict remains to be seen.