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The purpose of this study was to evaluate distressed securities at Ko Samui (or Koh Samui, also often locally shortened to Samui) is an island off the east coast of Thailand. which is consists of three research questions 1) What is P (pass test | nonsurvivor) 2) What is P (survivor | pass test) 3) What is P (nonsurvivor | fail test)
Outcome(s) calculated show that P (pass test | nonsurvivor) = 0.03, P (survivor|pass test) = 0.360, P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = 0.980. in this calculation is best interpreted as the firms (All businesses offering tourism services) approximately 3% will be survived and the rest is heading for disaster.
Keywords: Event-Driven Strategy, Distressed securities, Hedge funds
Introduction
Evaluating distressed securities in Thailand. Companies that do not receive a passing score are classed as likely to go bankrupt within 12 months. Consensus gathered are as follows:
· Ninety-six percent of the companies to which the test is administered will go bankrupt within 12 months: P(nonsurvivor) = 0.96.
· Five percent of the companies to which the test is administered pass it: P (pass test) = 0.05.
· The probability that a company will pass the test given that it will subsequently survive 12 months, is 0.45: P(pass test | survivor) = 0.45.
The research question and its scope being investigated
1. What is P (pass test | nonsurvivor)?
2. What is P (survivor | pass test)?
3. What is P (nonsurvivor | fail test)?
Methodological design
Problem-based learning research is used and secondary data is gathered via concensus. Bayes’ formula is a rational method used.
The result(s) and discussion(s) of the study.
P (pass test) = P (pass test|survivor) P(survivor) + P (pass test|nonsurvivor) P (nonsurvivor)
Researcher know that P (survivor) = 1 — P(nonsurvivor) = 1–0.96 = 0.04.
Therefore, P (pass test) = 0.05 = 0.45(0.04) + P (pass test | nonsurvivor)(0.96).
Thus P (pass test | nonsurvivor) = [0.05–0.45(0.04)]/0.96 = 0.03.
P (survivor|pass test) = [P (pass test|survivor) / P (pass test)] P (survivor) = (0.45/0.05)0.04 = 0.360
The information that a company passes the test causes to update probability that it is a survivor from 0.04 to approximately 0.360.
P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = [P (fail test | nonsurvivor) / P (fail test)] P (nonsurvivor) = [P(fail test | nonsurvivor)/0.95]0.96.
To obtain P (fail test | nonsurvivor):
P(failtest)=P(failtest|nonsurvivor)P(nonsurvivor)
+P(failtest|survivor)P(survivor) 0.95 = P (fail test| nonsurvivor) 0.96+0.55(0.04)
where P (fail test | survivor) = 1 — P (pass test | survivor) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55. So P(fail test | nonsurvivor) = [0.95 − 0.55(0.04)]/0.96 = 0.97. Using this result with the formula above, we find P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = (0.97/0.95)0.96 = 0.980. Seeing that a company fails the test causes us to update the probability that it is a nonsurvivor from 0.96 to 0.980.
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ข้อมูล(ความคิดเห็นส่วนตัวผู้วิจัย) ถูกผิด หรือมีประโยชน์มากน้อยเพียงใด โปรดใช้วิจารณญาณในการอ่าน ....ขอบคุณครับ Evaluating distressed securities for Hedge funds during covid 19 pandemic
Evaluating distressed securities for Hedge funds during covid 19 pandemic
-----------------------------
The purpose of this study was to evaluate distressed securities at Ko Samui (or Koh Samui, also often locally shortened to Samui) is an island off the east coast of Thailand. which is consists of three research questions 1) What is P (pass test | nonsurvivor) 2) What is P (survivor | pass test) 3) What is P (nonsurvivor | fail test)
Outcome(s) calculated show that P (pass test | nonsurvivor) = 0.03, P (survivor|pass test) = 0.360, P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = 0.980. in this calculation is best interpreted as the firms (All businesses offering tourism services) approximately 3% will be survived and the rest is heading for disaster.
Keywords: Event-Driven Strategy, Distressed securities, Hedge funds
Introduction
Evaluating distressed securities in Thailand. Companies that do not receive a passing score are classed as likely to go bankrupt within 12 months. Consensus gathered are as follows:
· Ninety-six percent of the companies to which the test is administered will go bankrupt within 12 months: P(nonsurvivor) = 0.96.
· Five percent of the companies to which the test is administered pass it: P (pass test) = 0.05.
· The probability that a company will pass the test given that it will subsequently survive 12 months, is 0.45: P(pass test | survivor) = 0.45.
The research question and its scope being investigated
1. What is P (pass test | nonsurvivor)?
2. What is P (survivor | pass test)?
3. What is P (nonsurvivor | fail test)?
Methodological design
Problem-based learning research is used and secondary data is gathered via concensus. Bayes’ formula is a rational method used.
The result(s) and discussion(s) of the study.
P (pass test) = P (pass test|survivor) P(survivor) + P (pass test|nonsurvivor) P (nonsurvivor)
Researcher know that P (survivor) = 1 — P(nonsurvivor) = 1–0.96 = 0.04.
Therefore, P (pass test) = 0.05 = 0.45(0.04) + P (pass test | nonsurvivor)(0.96).
Thus P (pass test | nonsurvivor) = [0.05–0.45(0.04)]/0.96 = 0.03.
P (survivor|pass test) = [P (pass test|survivor) / P (pass test)] P (survivor) = (0.45/0.05)0.04 = 0.360
The information that a company passes the test causes to update probability that it is a survivor from 0.04 to approximately 0.360.
P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = [P (fail test | nonsurvivor) / P (fail test)] P (nonsurvivor) = [P(fail test | nonsurvivor)/0.95]0.96.
To obtain P (fail test | nonsurvivor):
P(failtest)=P(failtest|nonsurvivor)P(nonsurvivor)
+P(failtest|survivor)P(survivor) 0.95 = P (fail test| nonsurvivor) 0.96+0.55(0.04)
where P (fail test | survivor) = 1 — P (pass test | survivor) = 1 − 0.45 = 0.55. So P(fail test | nonsurvivor) = [0.95 − 0.55(0.04)]/0.96 = 0.97. Using this result with the formula above, we find P (nonsurvivor | fail test) = (0.97/0.95)0.96 = 0.980. Seeing that a company fails the test causes us to update the probability that it is a nonsurvivor from 0.96 to 0.980.
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ข้อมูล(ความคิดเห็นส่วนตัวผู้วิจัย) ถูกผิด หรือมีประโยชน์มากน้อยเพียงใด โปรดใช้วิจารณญาณในการอ่าน ....ขอบคุณครับ Evaluating distressed securities for Hedge funds during covid 19 pandemic